The North American beer sector has experienced great changed in the last 18 months. There have been brewery closures but a wealth of of new openings, too. Draft is dominating while the appetite for no and low continues at pace. New taprooms are catering for local demand while the desire for hazy, often high ABV, IPAs isn’t going anywhere soon. Photo: Brewers association

In 2026 the craft beer landscape is one presenting challenges on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., there are shifting consumer habits, coupled retailer rationalisation, inflation-driven cost pressures, tariffs, and unprecedented levels of competition are creating tough trading conditions for craft beer.

This is according to the Brewers Association (BA), the not-for-profit trade association representing small and independent American craft brewers. But, as Lotte Peplow the Brewers Association’s American Craft Beer Ambassador for Europe explains, American craft brewers are nothing if not resilient and are stepping up to meet today’s challenges with adaptability and creativity.

It’s important firstly to look at American craft beer by the numbers. Craft beer production is estimated to be down 5% as measured by the Brewers Association Midyear survey (July 2025). Full production numbers for last year will be available in April 2026 but headwinds facing the industry a year ago have only strengthened so further contraction may be expected, she explains.

According to Peplow the number of small and independent breweries in operation in the U.S. in 2025 totalled 9,778, the second consecutive year that brewery closings outpaced openings (albeit by a relatively low percentage, 4.4%, of total operating breweries).

These breweries form part of a craft beer industry that supports more than 443,000 jobs nationwide, fostering local economies and creating opportunities, while craft beer’s contribution to the U.S. economy reached $72.5 billion, demonstrating its vital role in the broader beverage market. 

These figures sit on a backdrop of broader industry financials. According to recent research, The North American beer market is expected to grow from USD 183.42 billion in 2025 to USD 192.65 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 246.23 billion by 2031 at 5.03% CAGR over 2026-2031.

North America Beer Market Size & Share Analysis – Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 – 2031) by Mordor Intelligence, explains that consumers are trading down in volume yet trading up in value as premium, low-alcohol, and non-alcoholic offerings build momentum.

By category, standard accounted for 56.15% of the North American beer market share in 2025, while premium is set to expand at a 6.74% CAGR to 2031.Craft brewers, the company says, continue to influence flavour experimentation, while multinational groups accelerate portfolio rationalization to protect margins. 

And according to CGA by NIQ data published in its US Craft Beer Report 2025 by NIQ while overall U.S. beer sales have softened, draft beer remains a dominant force and one that accounts for more than 52% of on-premise volume. This is equivalent to holding a $21.8 billion share of the market. The company says craft beer leads on-premise sales, but “high-end, domestic super-premium, and non-alcoholic options” are gaining significant momentum. 

Draft beer understandably remains a big draw at brewery taprooms. “As consumers increasingly seek meaningful opportunities to connect, craft breweries are expanding their role as community “third spaces.” Whether through more substantial food offerings, an expanded range of beverage types, or more targeted programming, breweries are diversifying their revenue streams by appealing to specific consumer groups,” explains Lotte Peplow.

And its in these environments that consumers are enjoying beers at both ends of the spectrum. Non-alc continues to grow apace. “While beer has been down low single digits, non-alc has experienced double digit growth in both dollar sales and volume,” says Peplow. “Although the sector accounted for just 2.5% of beer sales by volume in 2025, this share has more than doubled since 2021.  

“In addition to non-alc’s continued growth streak, there has also been significant expansion in the low- to mid-strength segments (typically defined as <4.0% ABV). Brewers are seeking to capture more occasions that call for great flavour without the buzz.”

However, the haze craze lives on. “Juicy/hazy IPAs continue to dominate the American craft beer landscape, according to Peplow. “Originating in Vermont in the early 2000s, the style exploded in popularity by the mid- 2010s, capturing beer drinkers’ interest with its unfiltered appearance, fruit-forward character, and ease of drinking. 

“The Brewers Association recognised the Juicy/Hazy IPA style as an official category in 2018, and it has since become the most competitive category at both the GABF competition and the World Beer Cup. Flagship examples like Sierra Nevada Brewing Co’s Hazy Little Thing was launched in 2018 and is now the best-selling juicy/hazy IPA in the USA and widely available around the world.”

Another revered and highly-regarded North American brewery is the Russian River Brewing Company. The California business, founded by Natalie and Vinnie Cilurzo is known for world-class beers like Blind Pig, Pliny The Elder and Pliny The Younger, among others.

The brewery has also won a wealth of awards from the Great American Beer Festival and World Beer Cup. Vinnie and the brewery were twice named “Brewery and Brewmaster of the Year” at both the GABF and World Beer Cup. In 2007, while Vinnie was also awarded the “Russell Scherrer Award for Innovation in Brewing”.

“The business has also previously been the recipient of the “Brewers Association Recognition Award”. In a changing and evolving beer landscape, Vinnie says the business chooses to “stay in our lane and know what works for us”. 

“For RRBC, that is IPA, Lagers, and wild/sour/funky beer.  With this in mind, we may brew some one-off beers at our pubs but we don’t go making things like seltzer or cider that really aren’t in our wheelhouse,” he tells us.

“We are also brand builders, all the work we have done over the years both to build our beer brands as well as to continue to better each recipe from a quality and aroma / flavor standpoint pays off when the market is a little unsettled like it is now. Thankfully, we have a loyal fan base that continues to support RRBC and has allowed us to keep growing a little each year.”

From an investment standpoint, Cilurzo and the team marked 2025 with trio of CO₂ recovery plants becoming operational. Working with Dalum Beverage Equipment, this configuration allows the brewery to capture and reuse CO₂ generated during fermentation, dramatically reducing the need for purchased CO₂. “That is now supplying not only our Windsor, CA production brewery with all its CO2 needs but also all our CO2 needs for our Santa Rosa brewery,” Cilurzo adds. 

At Lallemand Brewing, which provides fermentation ingredients, process aids, enzyme, Andy Diacetis is the regional sales manager for North America. As a figure with 25 years experience in the brewing industry, he is observing a “new normal” in the US brewing sector. 

He explains: “The explosive growth of craft brewing in the US over the past several decades is well documented and when we focus on the last 10 years, some of the numbers really are jaw dropping. According to Brewers Association data, the total number of craft breweries from 2015 to 2024 grew from 4800 to 9800. In a market that already felt well-established, there was over 100% growth in a decade. That’s a lot of breweries. 

“A reset was bound to happen, and a confluence of factors have come together to expedite this. Economic uncertainty, changes in generational drinking behaviors and the reality of food and beverage consumption post-Covid are all very real headwinds to breweries in 2026.

“In normal times, any one of these three factors would lead to a slight downturn. All three of them happening simultaneously has led to the very real downturn we are experiencing today.

“In 2024, the following categories had more closures than openings: craft breweries, brewpubs, microbreweries and taprooms. It was the first time since the BA has been tracking these numbers that all four categories experienced this in the same year.”

Per the Brewing Association’s statistics, overall beer production in the US declined by 1.2% in 2024 and craft declined by 3.9%. Interestingly, Diacetis says, import beer increased by 3.9% for this same time period. Mexican beer imports are the primary driver here, led by Modelo which is now the number two brand in the US, followed by brands like Corona and Dos Equis which are also regularly in the top-20. 

He adds: “Michelob Ultra is the number one beer sold in America (just recently overtaking Modelo for the top spot). The number one craft brand is Voodoo Ranger from New Belgium Brewing. 

“The fact that the top two selling skus in the industry are a low-ABV, low-calorie beer on one end and a 9% ABV hazy IPA on the other is a pretty good microcosm of what brewers are facing in 2026. 

“The duality of consumers wanting very low alcohol beers or very high alcohol beers makes for interesting business strategies for brewers. For what it’s worth, the wine industry is experiencing something very similar.”

For Diacetis, the biggest bright spot is that non-alcoholic beer production is seeing incredible growth. “NA beer has seen double-digit growth in both sales and volume for four straight years. Innovative new products from suppliers have hit the market making NA beer production far more accessible and the quality has followed suit. And the best news here?

“According to a poll from the Brewers Association (conducted by Harris), traditional beer consumers are not turning their backs on regular craft beer and only drinking NA beer. NA beer is merely supplementing their traditional consumption. 14% of consumers are drinking less beer because they are consuming more NA beer instead.”

Alternative beverages are also filling tanks. Hard Italian soda, anyone? THC and CBD beverages are finding a place in people’s refrigerators and even in taprooms across the country. The more diversified a brewery is, the more open to innovation and thinking outside the box, the better chances they have of riding out the uncertainty of today, he notes.

And with a quarter of a century in the brewing industry, Diacetis says much has changed since starting out. “At that time things were pretty straightforward. Breweries made beer. Wineries made wine. Distilleries made spirits. The beverage industry now is virtually unrecognizable from a quarter century ago with all kinds of gray area,” he ponders. 

“Beverage producers all over the country are scrambling to figure out what the consumer wants to drink. Breweries are making spirits-based RTDs, wineries are making cider, cideries are making beverages with THC.

“Despite all the uncertainty, one fact that was true then remains true now and will forever remain true. If you want to survive in the beverage industry, whatever it is you make, it better taste good. Resting on your laurels and blindly continuing to do something the way you always have because it worked in the past will not help you today. A saying I regularly use is ‘Innovate or die’. Is that hyperbolic?

“Yes. Is it true from a beverage business perspective? Also yes. Beer as a beverage has been around for thousands of years. A several-year downturn is clearly not going to destroy the beverage. Brewers have seen bumps in the road in the past and the industry always finds new ways to innovate, capture a new audience and find relevance in American culture.

“Here’s hoping that we can determine what this new normal looks like and continue making beverages that create joy and bring people together.”